Jobs on the line

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With the experts predicting job cuts in large numbers, it seems 2009 is going to be a very tough year for people in work and those looking for it.

Feeling nervous? If Steve Kean from the University of Western Sydney is right, you should be.

"I think something in the order of 900,000 to 1,000,000 jobs are likely to go."

So it would seem the holidays are over and the bean counters are definitely counting.

"There's no safe place to hide really as far as this economy goes this year," says Melbourne University's Professor Mark Crosby.

"Firms are trying to cut costs. They're realising that things are very uncertain, that the economic outlook is at best mediocre and at worst recession."

Steve Kean believes there is a real risk long-term unemployment will increase.

"People could expect unemployment periods to exceed one, two or three years. Long-term unemployment is going to be the norm rather than the aberration in this recession."

So which jobs are under threat, how many are likely to go and how quickly?

So far, the seemingly untouchable and highly paid banking industry suits have fallen by the hundreds.

"I think anybody in the finance industry should be very worried, and I don't need to tell them that... finance will cut the most savagely after the Christmas break and they've already cut quite a bit before hand," says Steve Kean.

It's possible everyday jobs could be next, with those working in the retail sector under threat.

"Harvey Norman started talking about stores that were going to be shut down... and there's going to be a lot of shops of that nature that go, and the workplace will go with them," says Kean.

Not so long ago the construction industry couldn't find enough workers, but this is no longer the case.

Even jobs in mining are becoming scarce due to what Mark Crosby describes as a temporary bust in the commodities boom.

Some of our most recognizable companies like ANZ, Qantas, Macquarie Group and Rio Tinto have made big cuts and are predicted to make more.

For the economists, workers in banking and finance, retail, mining and construction, as well as administration and support workers in all industries, face a grim year as business shrinks and bosses cut costs.

The upside is, there are still some safe bets in areas shielded from economic woes.

The public service will always be protected to some extent, health has endured a skills crisis for years, teachers will always be needed, and engineers are also enjoying a shortage and an increased demand in services due to an early roll-out of government infrastructure projects across the country.

Bob Oliver, from the recruitment firm Oliver Group, says there are things you can do to protect your job.

"I think people that are in jobs realise that they are fortunate."

"I think they realise that it is probably not the time to be too aggressive in terms of expectations on pay rises. So it's probably a time to keep your head down, work as well as you can and hopefully you're not in a situation where your employer has really got to look at shedding heads."

For those who are looking for a job, the answer is to keep the faith and most importantly, remain active.

"For those who are looking for a job, the answer is don't get too depressed... be active, you've got to go looking for it, you just can't sit their and wait for it to come to you," says Oliver.

"We've been living in a fantasy economy for the past 20 years. And that fantasy is based on the reality that we can eat drink and be merry with money. Now we're having to pay that bill and that's going to radically change people's personality and whole orientation to life."